College football has always thrived on the underdog story—the FCS team that shocks the Power Five, the Cinderella story that reminds us why we love the sport. But what if I told you that miracle? What if the era of FCS upsets is not just fading but dying? I’m not saying it’s impossible, but the odds are so stacked against it now that even the most optimistic fan has to question if we’ve seen the last of these magical moments. Let me break down why this is happening and what it means for the future of the game.
The numbers speak for themselves. Power conference teams have won 125 straight games against FCS opponents, a streak that feels less like a record and more like a death knell for competitive parity. The last FCS win over a Power Four team was in 2023, when Sacramento State stunned Stanford. But here’s the kicker: Sacramento State is now jumping to the FBS, which means the pool of FCS teams capable of pulling off such feats is shrinking. This isn’t just about one team—it’s about a systemic shift. The transfer portal and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) money have created a talent vacuum that FCS programs can’t fill. Talented players are leaving for bigger contracts, better facilities, and the allure of playing in front of national audiences. It’s a zero-sum game, and the FCS is losing.
What makes this particularly fascinating is how it reflects broader changes in college sports. The NIL era promised to democratize opportunities, but instead, it’s amplified existing inequalities. FBS programs with deep pockets can outbid FCS schools for recruits, creating a talent hierarchy that’s nearly insurmountable. I’ve watched FCS teams like North Dakota State and Jacksonville State dominate FBS opponents in their final seasons, but even their best efforts feel like outliers in a system that’s tilted against them. The FCS isn’t just losing talent—it’s losing hope. When your best players are lured away by million-dollar NIL deals, how do you build a program that can compete with a powerhouse like Alabama or Ohio State?
But here’s the thing: the human element of sports can’t be entirely predicted. Even with the odds stacked against them, there are still six matchups in 2026 that could spark a resurgence of FCS magic. Let’s dissect them not just as games, but as cultural moments that could redefine what we expect from college football.
Take South Dakota State at Northwestern. The Jackrabbits are coming off back-to-back national championships, and quarterback Chase Mason is returning after a tough injury year. Northwestern’s coach has a history with FCS teams, which means he knows the threat. But even a team with a 0-4 record against Power Four opponents can’t be dismissed. If Mason can replicate the 2015 upset at Kansas, it would be a reminder that football is still a game of inches—and sometimes, heart.
Then there’s Youngstown State at Kentucky. The Penguins have a Heisman-level quarterback in Beau Brungard, who’s not just a passer but a dual-threat menace. Kentucky’s new coach might have a top-10 recruiting class, but first-year coaches often struggle with consistency. If Brungard can keep the ball out of the hands of Kentucky’s defense, this could be a thriller. It’s not just about talent—it’s about confidence. If Youngstown State believes they can win, they might just do it.
North Dakota at Nebraska is another intriguing matchup. Nebraska’s new coach, Matt Rhule, is trying to rebuild a program that’s been through a lot. North Dakota has a quarterback and edge rusher who nearly pulled off an upset at Kansas State last year. If the Huskers aren’t fully focused, this could be a nightmare scenario. It’s a reminder that even the most dominant programs can have off days—and that’s what makes sports unpredictable.
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Tech might seem like a mismatch, but Tennessee Tech has a 11-2 record and a strong transfer class. If Mississippi State is struggling in the SEC, this could be a perfect storm. College football’s schedule is brutal, and if a Power Five team is already exhausted, an FCS team with momentum could capitalize. It’s a lesson in the importance of depth and preparation.
Vanderbilt vs. Austin Peay is another wildcard. Vanderbilt’s new quarterback is a question mark, and Austin Peay has a quarterback who was a Walter Payton Award finalist. If the Commodores take a step back, this could be a devastating loss. It’s a stark contrast to Vanderbilt’s 2022 embarrassment against East Tennessee State, which shows how quickly a program can fall from grace.
Finally, Monmouth at West Virginia is a test for a Power Four team with a completely revamped roster. Rich Rodriguez’s West Virginia is full of new faces, and that kind of turnover can create chaos. Monmouth has already beaten Group of Five teams, so if they can handle the pressure, this could be a statement game.
What this all suggests is that while the odds are against FCS upsets, they’re not impossible. But the bigger question is: does college football want them? The current structure favors the elite programs, and as long as the transfer portal keeps draining talent from lower-tier schools, the gap will only widen. The sport needs to find a way to balance competitiveness with profitability, or risk becoming a predictable spectacle. Until then, we’ll have to savor these rare moments when the underdog rises—and hope they don’t become a relic of the past.
